Existing Sales Rise, But Inventory is a Drag; Rates Surging, How Bad Could it Get?

There’s no precedent for the winning streak enjoyed by mortgage rates in the 2nd half of 2020. We’ve never seen so many new record lows in the same year, and we never spent as much time at those lows (not even close). All of the above makes it easy to get lulled into a false sense of low-rate security, but it’s time to wake up. Actually, the alarm has been going off for a while now. Previous posts pointed out the disconnect between the bond market and mortgage rates on multiple occasions in 2020. Near the end of the year, we warned against complacency in no unspecific terms . Following the Georgia senate election, we’ve been tracking a surge in bond market volatility based on the expectation that it would increasingly spill over to the mortgage rate world. ( Read More: 1/8/21: Have We Seen
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